That's an 11 point swing from 2020 just because of the types of people who cast ballots.

Per ABC News's exit polls, 46 percent of people who voted in Ohio today said they voted for Biden in 2020, versus 43 percent for Trump. 'Low-engagement' voters, who are on average less educated and more Republican, show up. But in presidential years, when more voters turn out, outcomes revert to the mean. Because higher levels of education are correlated with political engagement (i.e., turnout) and, increasingly, the likelihood of voting for Democrats, off-year voters have become more reliably Democratic in recent years. There is strong reason to suspect it will be more Republican-leaning than voters today. That's a lot of 'D' W's!īut the population of Americans who cast ballots in today's races will not be the same population that turns out next year. And a near supermajority of Ohioans voted in favor of constitutional protections for abortion and to legalize cannabis for recreational use.

Democrats won a House special election in Rhode Island by about the same margin Biden did in 2020. Their win is a rebuke, in part, of an anti-abortion push by Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin that saturated airwaves in the final weeks of the race.

In Virginia, Democrats have won control of the state legislature, flipping the House of Delegates and holding their thin majority in the Senate. Despite fierce national political headwinds and a better competitor than his 2019 matchup, Andy Beshear expanded his vote margin and held the governorship in deep-red Kentucky. The 2023 elections were unambiguously good for Democrats, and liberals. Nov 08, 1:09 AM EST Final thought: Democrats did great, but this is not the 2024 electorate Link Share to Facebook Share to Twitter Email this article

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